Week of July 11, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead

“Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.” – Jack Schwager

1. Trump Says Aug. 1 Tariff Deadline Won’t Be Extended — President Donald Trump said he would not offer any extensions to a new August 1 deadline for the implementation of increased tariffs on many goods imported into the US. Trump began notifying trading partners of the new rates on Monday ahead of what was initially a deadline this week for countries to wrap up trade negotiations with his administration. But the new letters, unilaterally setting duties on countries that had failed to reach deals, came alongside an executive order delaying the tariff date for three weeks, effectively giving trading partners an extension for talks. Trump also said Monday night that his Aug. 1 deadline was “not 100% firm” when speaking with reporters, indicating then that he could be swayed by offers of additional concessions.
2. Copper Market in Turmoil as Trump Touts 50% Tariff on US Imports — the plan, announced in an apparently off-the-cuff comment to reporters, marks the latest twist in a tumultuous period for industrial commodities, as the US leader aims to encourage more mining and smelting at home. He’s already raised fees on steel and aluminum imports, while probes into flows of multiple other metals are in train. Since February, when Trump first laid out plans for the levies, global traders have sent record volumes of the metal to the US, targeting huge profits on cargoes that can be delivered before the tariffs land.
3. US, India in Talks on Trade Deal That May Cut Tariff Below 20% — the US is working toward an interim trade deal with India that may reduce its proposed tariffs to below 20%, people familiar with the matter said, putting the South Asian nation in a favorable position against its peers in the region. The statement would likely set a baseline tariff below 20% — compared with 26% initially proposed — with language that would allow the two sides to continue negotiating the rate as part of the final pact, the people said. The timing of an interim agreement is unclear. If finalized, India would be on a short list of trading partners that have secured deals with the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump has otherwise shocked dozens of trading partners this week by announcing tariff rates of as high as 50% in some cases ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
4. Trump Administration Says Immigrants in Country Illegally Can’t Access Head Start, Other Programs — the Trump administration is blocking immigrants in the country illegally from accessing early-childhood education program Head Start and a slate of other federal benefits and programs, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said. Under the new HHS guidance, anyone in the country illegally would be barred from Head Start and other programs and grants, including homelessness assistance, Title X family planning, substance-abuse treatment and mental-health services. Some of the affected programs generally don’t ask participants about immigration status and instead use income and other verification requirements to determine eligibility. The practical impact of the change is expected to be relatively small as immigrants without legal status don’t qualify for most federal benefits. In February, President Trump issued an executive order aimed at preventing immigrants without legal status from obtaining taxpayer-funded benefits and directed agencies to identify any relevant federal programs.
5. Trump Threatens 35% Tariff on Some Canadian Goods — The U.S. will put a 35% tariff on imports from Canada effective Aug. 1, President Trump announced on Thursday evening. Trump previously applied 25% tariffs to non-USMCA goods and the new rate, announced in a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and posted on social media, would mean that number rises to 35%, the official said. The U.S. and Canada had been involved in talks to lower tariffs ahead of a self-imposed July 21 deadline. Trump’s letter stands to derail Carney’s efforts to set a better tone with the U.S. Trump had clashed with Canada’s former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whom he mocked as “governor,” a reference to Trump’s desire to make Canada the 51st state. He has had a better relationship with Carney, referring to him as a “gentleman” and a “nice man.” But the warmer tone hasn’t yet achieved Carney’s goal of lowering U.S. tariffs that have already hurt Canada’s economy.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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