Week of June 13, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
“If most traders would learn to sit on their hands 50 percent of the time, they would make a lot more money.” – Bill Lipschutz
1. India, US to Expedite Trade Talks Ahead of Trump’s Tariff Deadline — Trade officials from India and the US met in New Delhi for about a week to discuss issues including greater market access, digital trade, customs rules and technical barriers to trade, the official told reporters in New Delhi, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The US trade team arrived in New Delhi last week to advance trade negotiations. India and the US are working on a phased trade deal with an early agreement targeted for July, the deadline for implementation of the Trump administration’s so-called reciprocal tariffs. Those tariffs — which target Indian exports with 26% levies — are facing legal challenges in Washington.
2. US Core Inflation Rises Less Than Forecast for Fourth Month — The consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.1% from April, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Wednesday. From a year ago, it rose 2.8%. Goods prices, excluding food and energy commodities, were unchanged. New and used-car prices both declined, as did apparel. Meanwhile, services prices minus energy rose 0.2%, a deceleration from the prior month and reflecting a decline in airfares and hotel stays.
The string of below-forecast inflation readings adds to evidence that consumers have yet to feel the pinch of President Donald Trump’s tariffs — perhaps because the most punitive levies have temporarily been on pause, or thanks to companies so far absorbing the extra costs or boosting inventory ahead of tariffs.
3. Muted US Producer Prices Add to String of Tame Inflation Reports — The producer price index rose 0.1% from a month earlier, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 0.2% increase. Excluding food and energy, the PPI also increased 0.1%. The PPI report follows May consumer price data that showed a fourth month of tame inflation. While the impact of higher tariffs has so far been modest for Americans, economists see price pressures building in the second half of the year as companies look to pass costs on to their customers.
4. Israel Attacks Iran’s Nuclear Sites and Kills Senior Commanders — Israel launched strikes across Iran on Friday morning, targeting nuclear facilities and killing top military commanders in a major escalation against its chief adversary that risks sparking a broad war in the Middle East. The strikes were far more extensive than those Israel carried out against Iran last year and underscored the country’s growing assertiveness, as well as its military and intelligence capabilities. Israel said it struck around 100 targets across Iranian cities on Friday morning, using 200 planes. The attacks caused oil to surge as much as 13%, though it later pared its gains, and investors to buy havens such as gold and US Treasuries.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
