“Do more of what works and less of what doesn’t” — Unknown

1. Trump U-Turns on Powell, China Follow Dire Economic Warnings — Trump entered office with a steadfast desire to reshape the global economy. But his resolve has appeared to waver in the face of turmoil in equities and bonds and pleas from powerful executives who fear his sweeping tariffs and interference with the Federal Reserve could set off an economic calamity. Trump on Tuesday said he had no intention to fire Powell — despite days of criticism over the central bank’s policies — and said he believed a deal with Beijing would significantly reduce the sweeping tariffs he’s posted on Chinese goods. After a report that the US would be willing to phase in lighter tariffs on Beijing over five years on Wednesday, Trump told reporters that China was “going to do fine” once talks had settled.
2. March home sales drop to their slowest pace since 2009 — Sales of previously owned homes in March fell 5.9% from February to 4.02 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the slowest March sales pace since 2009. Sales were 2.4% lower than March 2024 and slumped across all regions month-to-month. They fell hardest in the West, the priciest region of the country, down more than 9%. The West, however, was the only region to see a year-over-year gain, due to strong activity in the Rocky Mountain states where job growth is strong.
3. Economy Orders for big-ticket items like autos and appliances surged 9.2% in March in rush to beat tariffs — So-called durable goods orders soared a seasonally adjusted 9.2% on the month, up from a 0.9% gain in February and well ahead of the Dow Jones forecast for a 1.6% increase. Excluding defense, the increase was even higher, at 10.4%, though the ex-transportation number was flat. Transportation equipment orders surged 27%, led by a 139% increase in nondefense aircraft and parts. In addition to aircraft and autos, the durables category also includes items such as appliances, computers and jewelry. On the durables goods side, the advanced report reflects a pull-forward effect as Trump dangled threats against U.S. trading partners through March before announcing his “Liberation Day” duties on April 2. Trump slapped a 10% tariff against all imports as well as a select charges against dozens of countries that he ultimately tabled for 90 days for negotiations.
4. US Consumer Sentiment Slides While Inflation Expectations Jump — The final April sentiment index fell to 52.2 from 57 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan. While a slight improvement from the preliminary gauge of 50.8, the latest figure is the fourth-lowest in data back to the late 1970s.
Consumers anticipated inflation will rise at an annual rate of 4.4% over the next five to 10 years, the data out Friday showed. They expect prices to rise at a 6.5% pace over the next year. While down from a preliminary reading of 6.7%, year-ahead price expectations are still the highest since 1981.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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