Week of April 18, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
“Set your own rules and stick to them; never argue with the market; never make a play you can’t afford; never give way to irrational exuberance. Above all, don’t be a sucker.” — Jesse Livermore
1. China Goes After Boeing, Tells Airlines Not to Order New Aircraft From U.S. Jet Maker — Beijing has told Chinese airlines not to place new orders for Boeing jets and is requiring carriers to seek approval before taking delivery of aircraft they have already ordered, according to people with knowledge of the Chinese regulator’s guidance. Cutting off deliveries to China could dent revenue for the cash-strapped jet maker, which has been working to clear out parked planes and ramp up production and deliveries amid a quality crisis. Longer-term, the Chinese market is crucial; Boeing has forecast it will account for a fifth of the world’s airplane deliveries in the next two decades. Of 130 airplanes Boeing delivered globally this year through March, 18 went to Chinese airlines. Boeing delivered two planes to Chinese airlines earlier this month, according to data from Cirium.
2. March Retail Sales Beat. Consumers Are Stocking Up Ahead of Tariffs — Retail sales gained 1.4% in March from February, better than economists’ forecasts for a 1.3% increase, the Census Bureau reported. “Auto makers, by way of incentives, and savvy consumers are likely attempting to get ahead of future uncertainty surrounding auto pricing levels by taking advantage of March deals,” said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility, in a news release at the end of March. That said, spending among other categories was strong, as well. Stripping out sales of autos and gasoline, retail sales notched a monthly gain of 0.8%, higher than projections for a 0.5% increase.
3. US Mortgage Rates Jump Most Since October, Denting Home Demand — the contract rate on a 30-year mortgage increased 20 basis points in the week ended April 11 to 6.81%, the highest since February, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday. Rates on adjustable and 15-year fixed mortgages also climbed. The jump in financing costs brought an abrupt end to a six-week stretch of increasing home-purchase applications, highlighting home-buyer sensitivity to interest rates as housing prices remain elevated. MBA’s purchase applications index dropped 4.9%. The refinancing gauge slumped more than 12%, the fourth decline in the last five weeks. Mortgage rates track yields on 10-year Treasuries, which soared last week by a half percentage point as the trade war shakes global markets. The weekly surge in yields was the largest in more than two decades, raising fears the US is losing its status as the world’s safe haven. Yields have gradually retreated so far this week.
4. Trump Lashes Out at Powell, Says ‘Termination Cannot Come Fast Enough’ — late last week, in the Oval Office, Trump told reporters he had the power to dismiss Powell as Fed chair—a position that is at odds with Powell’s view of the law. Trump is upset that the Fed isn’t lowering interest rates to cushion the fallout from his trade war. Powell is “too late. He’s always too late, little slow,” Trump said. Inflation in the U.S. could rise more than in other countries in the coming months because Trump has imposed a range of tariffs. Whether the Fed chair can be removed before the end of a four-year term is an open question because it has never been attempted. Trump is trying to dismiss several other Biden appointees who have challenged their removal by citing a 90-year legal precedent that has shielded them from dismissal over a policy dispute.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
