1. Conference Board’s Consumer Survey Drops to 12-Year Low — the Conference Board’s monthly survey showed that forward-looking expectations for income, business and labor-market conditions dropped to the lowest level in 12 years, hitting an index level of 65.2. Levels below 80 often signal a recession, the Conference Board said. Meanwhile, the survey’s index showing consumers’ view of the current situation fell to 92.9, down 7.2 points from a month earlier, marking the fourth straight month of declines. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected the index to land at 93.5 in March. Analysts have been keeping a close eye on consumer surveys because of mounting evidence of a gloomy mood that could presage a real economic slowdown. In surveys of families and businesses alike in recent weeks, new tariffs are emerging as a central concern. But so far, there has been scant sign of a slowdown in backward-looking data such as the unemployment rate and GDP figures that show what has actually happened in the economy.
2. Trump Plans 25% Tariff on Imported Vehicles — President Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on global automotive imports to the U.S., making good on a pledge to impose duties on cars and trucks from other nations. The U.S. will start collecting the auto tariffs on April 3, Trump said, the day after he is slated to announce a broader slate of trade actions. Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs, slated for that day, were originally planned to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by foreign nations, but Trump said Wednesday that the tariffs he plans to implement would likely be lower than that. Trump also said the reciprocal tariffs will target “all countries,” and not just the 15% of nations that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had said could be given priority in the April 2 action.
Trump’s team has whipsawed between a maximalist approach to tariffs and offering potential leniency for companies and trading partners. Trump originally said he would impose sector-specific tariffs on industries such as semiconductors, lumber and pharmaceuticals on April 2. But he reiterated on Wednesday that those industry-specific tariffs wouldn’t happen on that date, though they could be announced later.
3. RFK Jr. to Unveil Plans to Cut 10,000 Health Department Workers — Kennedy plans to cut 10,000 employees, according to a statement Thursday. Combined with other departures from buyouts, the reductions mean the agency will employ 62,000 workers, down from 82,000. The secretary also intends to consolidate the department’s 28 divisions into 15 and cut regional offices from 10 to five. HHS said it plans to lay off 3,500 employees at the Food and Drug Administration, but those cuts will not include drug, medical device or food reviewers or inspectors. The CDC workforce will be cut by around 2,400 people. Around 1,200 more employees will be laid off at the National Institutes of Health, mostly focused on purchasing, human resources, and communications.
4. US Consumer Spending Barely Rises, Key Inflation Gauge Picks Up — Consumer spending was weaker than expected again in February while a key inflation metric picked up, in a double whammy for the economy before the brunt of tariffs. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending edged up 0.1%, on the low end of economists’ estimates, after a slump January that analysts mostly blamed on bad weather. Notably in February, Americans reduced spending on services for the first time in three years in the face of higher prices — including on dining out. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation rose 0.4% from January, the most in a year, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, was up 2.8% from last year, remaining stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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