“Hope is a bogus emotion that only costs you money.” – Jim Cramer

1. The Fed Keeps Rates Steady but Expects 2 Cuts This Year — Faced with pressing concerns over the impact tariffs will have on a slowing economy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Markets had been pricing in virtually zero chance of a move at this week’s two-day policy meeting.
Along with the decision, officials updated their rate and economic projections for this year and through 2027 and altered the pace at which they are reducing bond holdings. Despite the uncertain impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as an ambitious fiscal policy of tax breaks and deregulation, officials said they still see another half percentage point of rate cuts through 2025. The Fed prefers to move in quarter percentage point increments, so that would mean two reductions this year.
2. Trump Fires Two Democratic FTC Commissioners — President Trump fired the Federal Trade Commission’s two Democratic commissioners on Tuesday, the latest moves in his campaign to exert more control over independent government agencies. The move runs counter to current Supreme Court precedent that says the FTC’s commissioners can only be removed for cause. The Trump administration has been clear that it is eager to see that precedent revisited. The FTC is one of several commissions that were created to be bipartisan. It isn’t supposed to have more than three members from the same political party. After Tuesday’s dismissals, it will only have two members—Ferguson and fellow Republican Melissa Holyoak—both of whom are Republicans.
3. Trump Signs Order Seeking to Abolish Education Department — Trump’s order directs McMahon, co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment, to facilitate the closure of the agency to the maximum extent possible and permitted by law. McMahon will face a number of complications in closing the department, a task she has called its “final mission.” Existing law doesn’t allow the president to unilaterally close a department, such as Education, that has been established by Congress. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, giving them control of the chamber, but it is unlikely they would be able to gain support from Democrats to reach a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority to completely unwind the agency.
4. Small Business Administration Planning to Cut More Than 40% of Its Workforce — the extensive workforce reduction and restructuring will take the SBA, an agency with more than 6,500 employees, back to prepandemic staffing levels by eliminating around 2,700 positions. The cuts will affect nonessential roles at the agency, and include voluntary resignations and the expiration of appointments made during the Covid-19 pandemic, the people said. The SBA expanded in size during the Covid-19 pandemic to support programs such as the Paycheck Protection Program, and other small-business initiatives put in place during the Biden administration. The SBA will also expand personnel for disaster loan support and recovery efforts, according to the people.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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