Week of Sept 19 ’25 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
“Successful investing takes time, discipline and patience.”
1. US Retail Sales Rise in Sign of Solid Summer Spending — US retail sales rose in August for a third month in a broad advance, adding to evidence that consumers are still spending for now even as tariffs boost the cost of some goods, sentiment remains subdued and the labor market shows signs of faltering. The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after a similar gain in July, Commerce Department data showed. That beat all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Excluding cars, sales climbed 0.7%. Nine out of 13 categories posted increases, led by online retailers, clothing stores and sporting goods, likely reflecting back-to-school shopping.
2. Fed Trims Rates by Quarter Point and Sees 2 More Cuts This Year — The Federal Reserve on Wednesday approved a widely anticipated rate cut and signaled that two more are on the way before the end of the year as concerns intensified over the U.S. labor market. In an 11-to-1 vote signaling less dissent than Wall Street had anticipated, the Federal Open Market Committee lowered its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter percentage point. The decision puts the overnight funds rate in a range between 4.00%-4.25%.
Newly-installed Governor Stephen Miran was the only policymaker voting against the quarter-point move, instead advocating for a half-point cut. In the post-meeting statement, the committee again characterized economic activity as having “moderated” but added language saying that “job gains have slowed” and noted that inflation “has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.” Lower job growth and higher inflation are in conflict with the Fed’s twin goals of stable prices and full employment.
3. Government Shutdown Looms & Stock Market Performance — If past is prologue, stocks have actually risen in most cases as Washington has deadlocked over spending, taxes or border-security issues. The latest fight is over the exclusion of healthcare money sought by Democrats, and prediction markets see a 56% chance of a shutdown as of Thursday. The below table compiled by Stifel’s chief Washington policy strategist, Brian Gardner, shows six government shutdowns since 1978 that lasted five or more trading days, with the S&P 500 index
4. Democrats Dig In on Shutdown Stance After White House Threatens to Fire Workers — House Republicans are planning to vote by Friday on legislation to avert a shutdown. It would fund the government through Nov. 21 and also includes extra money for lawmakers’ security in the wake of the killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk last week.
The measure excludes an extension of expanded Affordable Care Act subsidies, and Democrats have threatened to withhold votes over the exclusion. Republican leaders have been open to the idea of keeping the enhanced subsidies but say they need more time to iron out details, according to the Wall Street Journal. The U.S. government is hurtling toward a shutdown in a matter of days with no exit ramp in sight, as Republicans and Democrats latch onto starkly different positions and the White House threatens to lay off more federal workers.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
