Week of Aug 22, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
1. Japan’s Exports Fall for Third Consecutive Month — Exports declined 2.6% from a year earlier, following a 0.5% drop in June, according to data released by the Ministry of Finance. Economists had forecast a 2.1% decline for last month, according to a median estimate from data provider LSEG. Shipments to the U.S. fell 10.1% from a year earlier due to weakness in automobiles. That compared with the 11.4% fall in June and marked the fourth straight month of decline.
Japanese automakers have cut prices to maintain their market share in the U.S., but economists warn that this strategy is unsustainable in the long term due to the damage it will cause to profitability.
2. S&P Affirms U.S. Credit Rating as Tariff Revenue Expected to Plug Fiscal Leaks — S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the credit ratings of the U.S., saying it expects robust revenues from the Trump administration’s newly instituted tariff regime to help offset the expected fiscal deterioration resulting from recent legislative changes. The sovereign credit ratings were held at AA+/A-1+, with the outlook remaining stable. The outlook was kept stable, reflecting expectation of continued resilience in the U.S. economy; credible, effective monetary policy execution; high, but not rising, fiscal deficits that underpin the increase in net general government debt; and the $5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, it said.
3. July Home-Price Gains Were the Weakest Since 2023 — Prices for existing homes nationally inched up 0.2% from the year prior to a median sale price of $422,400 in July, according to National Association of Realtors data released Thursday. It was the weakest reading since existing-home prices fell 0.9% in June 2023. Some buyers are taking advantage, the data suggest. Home sales increased 2% from the previous month to a 4.01 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. While that is still slow, it is faster than the consensus call on FactSet, which called for a decline to an annual rate of 3.92 million from 3.93 million one month prior.
4. Powell Opens Door to Interest Rate Cut, Citing Labor Markets — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell carefully opened the door to an interest-rate cut in September, pointing to rising risks for the labor market even as worries over inflation remain. “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance,” Powell said in remarks prepared for the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday. “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” The signal comes at a time when Fed officials are divided over how and when to adjust policy in the coming months. Some have pointed to the labor market’s resilience. Others warn that nascent signs of weakness in employment could metastasize into a more significant downturn.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
