“The economy is growing, and the economic reports are positive. Corporate earnings are rising and beating expectations. The media carry only good news. Securities markets strengthen. Investors grow increasingly confident and optimistic. Risk is perceived as being scarce and benign. Investors think of risk-bearing as a sure route to profit. Greed motivates behavior. Demand for investment opportunities exceeds supply. Asset prices rise beyond intrinsic value. Capital markets are wide open, making it easy to raise money or roll over debt. Defaults are few. Skepticism is low and faith is high, meaning risky deals can be done. No one can imagine things going wrong. No favorable development seems improbable. Everyone assumes things will get better forever. Investors ignore the possibility of loss and worry only about missing opportunities, No one can think of a reason to sell, and no one is forced to sell. Buyers outnumber sellers. Investors would be happy to buy if the market dips. Prices reach new highs. Media celebrate this exciting event. Investors become euphoric and carefree. Security holders marvel at their own intelligence; perhaps they buy more. Those who’ve remained on the sidelines feel remorse; thus they capitulate and buy. Prospective returns are low (or negative). Risk is high. Investors should forget about missing opportunity and worry only about losing money. This is the time for caution!” ― Howard Marks

1. Fed Officials Saw Taper Starting in Mid-November or Mid-December — Federal Reserve officials broadly agreed last month they should start reducing emergency pandemic support for the economy in mid-November or mid-December amid increasing concern over inflation. Fed officials last month left interest rates near zero but signaled they were close to beginning to scale back their $120 billion in monthly asset purchases. Chair Jerome Powell told reporters during a post-meeting press conference the process could start as soon as November and would likely end around mid-2022.
2. L.A. Port to Operate Around the Clock to Ease Cargo Logjams — one of the country’s busiest ports will operate around the clock in an effort to ease cargo bottlenecks that have led to shortages and higher consumer costs, a change announced by the White House as it seeks to alleviate supply-chain issues ahead of the holidays. By going to 24/7, the Port of Los Angeles will join the neighboring Port of Long Beach, Calif., which started doing a similar thing last month. Major ports in Asia and Europe have operated around the clock for years. The Port of Long Beach struggled to increase cargo flows after it extended its opening hours, with truckers complaining that restrictions put on them for picking up and dropping off containers were too onerous. Shortages of truck drivers and warehouse workers have also posed problems across supply chains. It remains unclear how many of the terminals in Los Angeles will operate 24/7 and when those operations will begin.
3. Moderna Booster Shot Backed by FDA Advisory Panel — Vaccine experts advising the Food and Drug Administration voted 19 to 0 Thursday to recommend authorization of an extra dose of Moderna Inc.’s Covid-19 shot, a key step in making booster doses available to millions more people. An advisory panel voted in favor of giving a Moderna booster shot at least six months after the second dose, to adults 65 years and older, as well as adults under 65 who are at high risk of severe Covid-19 or serious complications because of their jobs, living conditions or underlying medical conditions. The FDA has authorized the vaccine from Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech SE for adolescents. The agency also has already greenlighted booster doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for seniors and adults at high risk of Covid-19 who received the shots already and are at least six months past their first vaccination.
4. J&J Covid-19 Booster Shot Endorsed by FDA Advisers — the panel of outside doctors and experts voted 19-0 to recommend that all adults who received a first dose of the J&J vaccine should get the second dose at least two months later. J&J had requested that the FDA authorization recommend people wait six months, though they could get the booster as early as two months after the first dose. The company presented evidence showing varying effects when the booster is given between two and six months after the first dose.
The meeting is the latest by experts whose counsel the FDA has sought before making authorization decisions.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

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