“There is a time to go long, a time to go short and a time to go fishing.” – Jesse Livermore

1. US Core CPI Rises Less Than Expected Again on Drop in Car Prices — the consumer price index, excluding the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.2% from May, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Tuesday. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.9%. Goods prices, excluding food and energy commodities, rose 0.2% after stalling in the prior month. Categories that are more exposed to tariffs, including toys, furniture, appliances and apparel, showed strength, suggesting companies are starting to pass higher import costs on to consumers. Meantime, prices of new and used cars declined. However, the slew of below-forecast inflation readings raises questions as to how broadly President Donald Trump’s tariffs will impact consumer prices. Some companies have been able to shield customers by stocking up on inventories ahead of the levies or absorbing part of the higher costs at the expense of lower margins.
2. US Producer Prices Stagnated on Decline in Services Costs — the producer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, after an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics report released Wednesday. US wholesale prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the least since September. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the PPI was also flat. It increased 2.5% from June of last year — the smallest annual advance since late 2023.
The PPI report follows June consumer price data that showed higher tariffs are filtering through into a variety of categories that include household furnishings, appliances and recreational goods. While inflation has been mild so far this year, many economists expect it to gradually build as more companies attempt to offset higher trade costs.
3. US Retail Sales Surge in Broad Advance — the value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% after declines in the prior two months, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. That exceeded nearly all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Excluding cars, sales climbed 0.5%. Ten out of 13 categories posted increases, surprisingly fueled by motor vehicle sales, which climbed after back-to-back declines. Administrative data showed car sales fell in June and prices for new and used vehicles were down in the latest inflation data, defying economists’ expectations for autos to weigh on the headline retail figure.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: