“I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE: 1. I objectively identify my edges. 2. I predefine the risk of every trade. 3. I completely accept the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade. 4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation. 5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me. 6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors. 7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I never violate them.”
― Mark Douglas

1. US Job Openings Unexpectedly Rise to Highest Since November — available positions increased by 374,000 to 7.77 million, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data published Tuesday. That exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Vacancies in the hospitality sector accounted for three quarters of May openings. The finance, transportation and warehousing industries as well health care also saw more moderate gains. The May gain brought openings roughly in line with last year’s average. However, the increase was concentrated in one industry and openings in other sectors were more mixed. That suggests employers are growing cautious about expanding their staff while at the same time mostly holding onto their existing workers.
2. The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase — Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000. This week, the government’s nonfarm payrolls report will be out on Thursday with economists expecting a healthy 110,000 increase for June, per Dow Jones estimates. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. Some economists could revise down their jobs reports estimates following ADP’s data.
Weekly jobless claims data is also due Thursday, with economists penciling in 240,000. This string of labor stats comes during a shortened trading week, with the market closing early on Thursday and remaining dark on Friday in honor of the July Fourth holiday.
3. Trump Wins Broad Economic Policy Shift as House Passes Tax Bill — President Donald Trump secured a sweeping shift in US domestic policy as the House passed a $3.4 trillion fiscal package that cuts taxes, curtails spending on safety-net programs and reverses much of Joe Biden’s efforts to move the country toward a clean-energy economy. The 218-214 vote in the House Thursday sends the legislation to Trump, in time for a July 4 deadline he set. House leaders had to keep earlier procedural votes open for hours to convince a small band of holdouts to support the legislation.
The Senate also imposed deeper cuts in Medicaid health insurance for the poor and disabled, reducing spending on the program by nearly $1 trillion over the next decade, according to the CBO. Most clean-energy tax breaks passed under Biden are phased out and a popular $7,500 consumer tax credit for electric vehicles is eliminated for purchases made after Sept. 30.
The core of the bill is an extension of 2017 Trump tax cuts for individuals and pass-through businesses that were set to expire at the end of 2025. It also provides new resources for Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration and for military spending including the president’s “Golden Dome” missile defense plan. A group of House Republicans from high-tax states such as New York, New Jersey and California won a temporary increase in the limit on the state and local tax deduction to $40,000. After five years, the cap will snap back to the current $10,000 limit originally imposed under Trump’s 2017 tax law.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: