“I’m not better than the next trader, just quicker at admitting my mistakes and moving on to the next opportunity”. — George Soros

1. OECD Warns That World Growth to Slow Amid Trade Turmoil — The world economy will lose pace this year, hamstrung by uncertainty stemming from a whipsawing U.S. trade policy, according to new forecasts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Collectively, the global economy is now set to grow by 2.9% this year and next, the OECD said in its quarterly report released Tuesday. That marks a downgrade to the group’s previous forecasts, which saw growth at 3.1% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, and suggests the world economy is set to slow from the 3.3% expansion it booked last year.
2. U.S. Hiring Slows Again, ADP Report Shows — Just 37,000 jobs were created last month, down from 62,000 in April, according to the ADP National Employment report released Wednesday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected hiring to pick up pace to 110,000 new jobs on the month. The downturn means jobs growth was its weakest in more than two years. Signs of weakness in hiring in the private sector contrast to other indications of a robust jobs market. There has been little sign elsewhere that gloomier economic sentiment is leading to an uptick in unemployment.
3. US Trade Deficit Narrows by Most on Record as Imports Plunge — The gap in goods and services trade shrank 55.5% from the prior month, to $61.6 billion, the smallest since 2023 and more than completely reversing the sharp widening that occurred in the first quarter, Commerce Department data showed Thursday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a $66 billion deficit. Imports of goods and services declined a record 16.3% in April, while exports increased 3%. The sharp narrowing in April puts trade on track for a large contribution to gross domestic product in the second quarter after being largely responsible for a 0.2% annualized decline in first-quarter GDP. Higher US reciprocal duties on most imported goods that went into effect early in the month helps explain the huge slowdown in inbound shipments from overseas producers.
4. US Jobs Report Points to Gradual Moderation in Labor Market — Nonfarm payrolls increased 139,000 last month after a combined 95,000 in downward revisions to the prior two months, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while wage growth accelerated. The payrolls figure, which was slightly better than expectations, helps alleviate concerns of a rapid deterioration in labor demand as companies contend with higher costs related to tariffs and prospects of slower economic activity. President Donald Trump’s decision to pause some of the more punitive import duties, including those on China, has helped lift sentiment among businesses as well as consumers. The labor market report wraps up a week of disappointing economic data that included a further increase in applications for jobless benefits and weaker services activity.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: