Week of March 22, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
Tuesday, March 25th, 2025“Hope is a bogus emotion that only costs you money.” – Jim Cramer
1. The Fed Keeps Rates Steady but Expects 2 Cuts This Year — Faced with pressing concerns over the impact tariffs will have on a slowing economy, the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee kept its key borrowing rate targeted in a range between 4.25%-4.5%, where it has been since December. Markets had been pricing in virtually zero chance of a move at this week’s two-day policy meeting.
Along with the decision, officials updated their rate and economic projections for this year and through 2027 and altered the pace at which they are reducing bond holdings. Despite the uncertain impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as an ambitious fiscal policy of tax breaks and deregulation, officials said they still see another half percentage point of rate cuts through 2025. The Fed prefers to move in quarter percentage point increments, so that would mean two reductions this year.
2. Trump Fires Two Democratic FTC Commissioners — President Trump fired the Federal Trade Commission’s two Democratic commissioners on Tuesday, the latest moves in his campaign to exert more control over independent government agencies. The move runs counter to current Supreme Court precedent that says the FTC’s commissioners can only be removed for cause. The Trump administration has been clear that it is eager to see that precedent revisited. The FTC is one of several commissions that were created to be bipartisan. It isn’t supposed to have more than three members from the same political party. After Tuesday’s dismissals, it will only have two members—Ferguson and fellow Republican Melissa Holyoak—both of whom are Republicans.
3. Trump Signs Order Seeking to Abolish Education Department — Trump’s order directs McMahon, co-founder of World Wrestling Entertainment, to facilitate the closure of the agency to the maximum extent possible and permitted by law. McMahon will face a number of complications in closing the department, a task she has called its “final mission.” Existing law doesn’t allow the president to unilaterally close a department, such as Education, that has been established by Congress. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, giving them control of the chamber, but it is unlikely they would be able to gain support from Democrats to reach a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority to completely unwind the agency.
4. Small Business Administration Planning to Cut More Than 40% of Its Workforce — the extensive workforce reduction and restructuring will take the SBA, an agency with more than 6,500 employees, back to prepandemic staffing levels by eliminating around 2,700 positions. The cuts will affect nonessential roles at the agency, and include voluntary resignations and the expiration of appointments made during the Covid-19 pandemic, the people said. The SBA expanded in size during the Covid-19 pandemic to support programs such as the Paycheck Protection Program, and other small-business initiatives put in place during the Biden administration. The SBA will also expand personnel for disaster loan support and recovery efforts, according to the people.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
Posted in Week of March 15, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
Tuesday, March 18th, 2025“If most traders would learn to sit on their hands 50 percent of the time, they would make a lot more money.” – Bill Lipschutz
1. Trump Doubles Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum — President Donald Trump said last week that he plans to double the rate of tax on imports of Canadian steel and aluminum after Ontario retaliated against earlier tariffs with higher levies on electricity sent to the U.S. The move comes only days after Trump delayed most of the tariffs on Canada and Mexico until April. Trump also cited Canadian tariffs on dairy products, promised to increase charges on cars, and said Canada relies too much on the U.S. for defense.
2. Ukraine Accepts US-Brokered Ceasefire Plan in Deal for Aid — Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30-day truce with Russia as part of a deal with the Trump administration to lift its freeze on military aid and intelligence for Kyiv. The agreement laid out in a joint statement follows eight hours of talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday that raised the possibility of a pause of hostilities in Russia’s three-year war that’s ravaged Ukraine. Trump said US officials will speak to their Russian counterparts on Wednesday and that it’s possible he’ll talk to Putin this week.
3. Inflation Cooled to 2.8% in February, Lower Than Expected — Consumer prices were up 2.8% in February from a year earlier, the Labor Department reported last Wednesday, versus a January gain of 3%. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 2.9% gain. Prices excluding food and energy categories—the so-called core measure that economists watch in an effort to better capture inflation’s underlying trend—rose 3.1%. That was the lowest year-over-year reading since 2021. Economists are struggling to keep up with the recent tariff news, but are pushing up their inflation estimates nonetheless. Goldman Sachs economists last week raised their forecast for the Commerce Department’s core inflation gauge to 2.9% in the coming fourth quarter from a year earlier. That compared with a previous estimate of 2.4%.
4. Consumer Sentiment Slides in March as Inflation Expectations Jump — The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to a reading of 57.9 in the first weeks of March, according to preliminary figures released Friday. Economists were expecting the index would fall to a reading of 64 from February’s 64.7. The declines in sentiment were seen consistently across all groups by age, education, income, wealth, geographic regions, and political affiliations, Hsu said. Republicans, who had thus far remained fairly upbeat about the economy, posted a 10% decline in their expectations for the future. For Independents and Democrats, the expectations index declined 12% and 24%, respectively. On a separate note, below is the stat of the SPY performance 1-year after entering correction.
VIX Fear Gauge Statistics
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Week of March 8, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
Tuesday, March 11th, 2025“Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful” — Buffett
1. Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Says He Is Ready to Work Fast to End War — President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that he’s ready to work speedily to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, stressing how “regrettable” his falling out was with US President Donald Trump and stating his determination to help bring about peace. The comments are an olive branch to the US president came after Trump ordered a pause to all US military aid to Ukraine. Trump’s actions turned up the heat on the Ukrainian leader after a disastrous meeting in the White House last week that upended attempts at reconciling the two. The US president falsely accused Zelenskiy of wanting to continue the conflict.
2. U.S. Pauses All Military Aid to Ukraine — The U.S. will pause all military aid to Kyiv until President Trump determines that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is making a good-faith effort toward peace negotiations with Russia, according to a White House official. The White House didn’t announce under what conditions the U.S. would resume military aid, which drew from U.S. stockpiles, or whether it would be at the same pace. While there isn’t a clear understanding of what Washington wants from Kyiv, the move was the most demonstrative shift yet from Ukraine’s once top ally. A senior administration official said all of Trump’s top national security advisers agreed with the decision to pause the aid after several meetings on the issue. Trump, enraged by Zelensky’s comments that he thought the end of the war was far away, felt the need to show he was serious about getting Ukraine to the peace table.
3. Trump Says He Will Delay Mexico Tariffs on Goods Under USMCA — President Donald Trump said he will exempt Mexico from his new 25% tariffs on any goods and services that fall under the North American trade agreement known as USMCA, offering a reprieve for a major US trading partner. The decision came shortly after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Trump was weighing an exemption for both Mexican and Canadian goods under the agreement, saying he expected Trump to officially decide the scope of the delay on Thursday. It’s not clear that Trump will extend the full USMCA pause to Canada, though he has already said he would exempt Canadian autos and auto parts that are imported under the trade deal. Whatever exemption is implemented is expected to last until April 2, when Trump expects to enact a fresh round of tariffs, including “reciprocal” duties on countries around the world and sector-specific ones, like on auto, pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
Posted in Week of Feb 28, 2025 Weekly Recap & The Week Ahead
Wednesday, March 5th, 2025When in doubt, get out and get a good night’s sleep. I’ve done that lots of times and the next day everything was clear… While you are in [the position], you can’t think. When you get out, then you can think clearly again. — Michael Marcus
1. Trump says Mexico, Canada tariffs will start March 4, plus additional 10% on China — President Donald Trump on late last week said his proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go into effect March 4 and that China will be charged an additional 10% tariff on the same date. The sweeping 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada had been paused on Feb. 3 for one month. But the Trump administration has recently sown confusion about whether they would go back into effect when the delays expired. “We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” Trump wrote.
He also announced that China, which already faces 10% U.S. tariffs on its products, “will likewise be charged an additional 10% Tariff on that date.”
2. Pending home sales drop to the lowest level on record in January — Pending sales, which are based on signed contracts for existing homes, dropped 4.6% from December to the lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking this metric in 2001. Sales were down 5.2% from January 2024. These sales are an indicator of future closings. While weather may have been a factor, sales rose month-to-month in the Northeast and fell in the West, which would have seen the smallest impact of cold temperatures. Sales fell hardest in the South, which has been the most active region for home sales in recent years. Mortgage rates were also higher in January. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan spent the first half of December below 7% but then began rising. It was solidly above 7% for all of January, according to Mortgage News Daily.
3. Margin Debt Hits Record High. Investors Are Amping Up Risk — Debit balances in investors’ margin accounts reached a record $937 billion as of January. That’s up 33% from $701 billion in January 2024, according to brokerage industry self-regulatory organization Finra, which publishes monthly data. Margin trading, in which investors borrow funds from their brokerage firms in order to buy stocks, can amplify returns, but it is also risky, because investors use their securities portfolios as collateral.
4. Fed’s favorite core inflation measure hits 2.6% in January — The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, increased 0.3% for the month and showed a 2.5% annual rate. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE also rose 0.3% for the month and was at 2.6% annually. Fed officials more closely follow the core measure as a better indicator of longer-term trends. The 12-month core measure showed a step down from the upwardly revised 2.9% level in December. Headline inflation eased by 0.1 percentage point. The report comes as Fed policymakers weigh their next move for interest rates. In recent weeks, officials mostly have expressed hopes that inflation will continue to gravitate lower. However, they have indicated they want more evidence that inflation is headed sustainably back to their 2% goal before they will lower interest rates further.
The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:
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