“Losers average losers.” …unknown

1. US Inflation Stays Firm for Third Month With 0.3% Core CPI Gain — the so-called core consumer price index — which excludes food and energy costs — increased 0.3% for a third month, Bureau of Labor Statistics figures showed Wednesday. Over the last three months it rose at a 3.6% annualized rate, marking the fastest pace since April, according to Bloomberg calculations. Economists see the core gauge as a better indicator of the inflation trend than the overall CPI. The headline measure rose 0.2% for a fourth month and 2.6% from a year before, marking the first acceleration on an annual basis since March. The BLS said shelter accounted for over half of the overall monthly advance.
2. Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations — the producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September though matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.
3. Solid Retail Sales Show Strength of U.S. Consumer — the Census Bureau said Friday that retail sales gained 0.4% in October from September, better than economists’ forecasts for a 0.3% increase. Sales rose 2.8% on an annual basis.
Demand for cars and car parts helped push the headline figure higher. Spending at car and parts retailers rose by 1.6% in October from the prior month. Indeed, when stripping out the effects of car dealers and gasoline stations, sales ticked up by 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.3% increase. Categories that grew in October include electronics and appliances stores, which gained by 2.3%, and building material suppliers, up 0.5%, likely reflecting the beginning of hurricane-reconstruction efforts.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

1. U.S. Services Sector Accelerates on Employment Boost — the Institute for Supply Management’s services-activity index edged up to 56.0 in October from 54.9 in September, beating expectations of 53.7 expected in a poll of economists compiled by The Wall Street Journal. That marked the fourth-straight month of expansion, registered when the gauge is above the 50 no-change mark. The survey showed services employment expanding last month, after it contracted in September, though demand—as measured by new orders—slowed, despite still being in exclusionary territory, ISM said.
2. Trump Wins US Presidential Election in Extraordinary Comeback — Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States, pulling off a stunning political comeback in one of the most polarized contests for the White House in US history. Trump, 78, won an unprecedented race during which he was convicted of felonies, survived two assassination attempts and crushed a challenge from Vice President Kamala Harris after she replaced an unpopular President Joe Biden in the campaign’s final months. He was elected by a country deeply at odds over immigration, abortion and foreign policy, and one still feeling the pinch after the biggest surge of inflation in four decades. Trump also helped Republicans recapture the Senate, underscoring his ability to seize on voter angst.
3. Fed Cuts Rates; Powell Says Wouldn’t Resign If Asked By Trump — Fed officials unanimously lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. The second-straight rate cut followed a larger, half-point reduction in September, extending efforts to keep the US economic expansion on solid footing. Powell said the US presidential election will have “no effects” on the central bank’s policy decisions in the near-term, noting it’s too early to know the timing or substance of any potential fiscal policy changes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he would not resign from his role if asked to do so by a re-elected Donald Trump, following the Fed’s decision Thursday to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

1. US Economy Expands at 2.8% Rate, Powered by Resilient Consumer — Gross domestic product, a measure of all the goods and services produced during the three-month period from July through September, increased at a 2.8% annualized rate, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday that is adjusted for inflation and seasonality.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 3.1%. The economy accelerated at a 3% pace in the second quarter. However, resilient consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all activity, has helped keep the economy moving, as has a relentless wave of government spending that pushed the budget deficit to more than $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024.
2. Key US Inflation Gauge and Spending Pick Up in Solid Economy — The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 0.3% in September, and 2.7% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Thursday. Overall inflation was 2.1%, the lowest since early 2021 and just above the central bank’s 2% goal. Thursday’s figures cap a month of upside surprises in key economic reports that will likely augur a cautious approach to rate cuts in the months ahead. The Fed is widely expected to authorize a second reduction at the conclusion of its Nov. 6-7 policy meeting following an initial cut in September.
3. US Payrolls Increase by Just 12,000, Hit by Storms and Strikes — Nonfarm payrolls increased 12,000 last month, and hiring over the previous two months was weaker than previously thought, suggesting the underlying labor market continues to cool. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and hourly earnings ticked up, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics figures released Friday.
BLS said two hurricanes that hit the Southeast US likely affected hiring in some industries, but it wasn’t possible to quantify the net effect on the change in employment, hours or earnings last month. There was no discernible effect on the unemployment rate, however. The report also showed manufacturing jobs plunged, largely reflecting strike activity in October.
4. Post U.S. Election Market Stat — The major benchmarks on average have seen gains between Election Day and year-end in the presidential election year going back to 1980, according to CNBC data. However, the three indexes have all averaged declines in the session and week following those voting days. Stocks have tended to erase most or all of those losses within a month

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: