“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
– Charles Darwin

1. US Previously Owned Home Sales Fall to an Almost 14-Year Low — Contract closings decreased 1% from a month earlier to a 3.84 million annualized rate, according to figures released Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a 3.88 million pace, based on the median projection. Many buyers and sellers are waiting for home financing costs to fall from their current perch in the mid-6% range. Mortgage rates, which slid to a two-year low in September, have climbed after recent job market and inflation data boosted bets the Federal Reserve will take a more gradual approach to reducing borrowing costs. The resale market has largely been stuck for the past two years, barely moving much above or below an annualized rate of 4 million homes on a monthly basis. A major factor has been the so-called lock-in effect, or homeowners’ reluctance to list their homes and surrender their lower mortgage rate.
2. U.S. Economy Again Leads the World, IMF Reported — The International Monetary Fund highlights those divergent paths in its latest global scorecard, released Tuesday. In what has become something of a trend, the IMF upgraded the outlook for both U.S. and global growth, though more for the former.
The IMF projects U.S. gross domestic product to expand 2.5% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier—half a percentage point higher than a July forecast, which itself was an upgrade from a January estimate. U.S. output rose 3.2% in 2023. For 2025, the IMF projects the U.S. to grow 1.9%, versus 1.7% for all advanced economies and 3.1% for the global economy. China, the world’s second-largest economy, is expected to post 4.5% growth this year—a slight downgrade from a prior estimate—and 4.7% in 2025, after expanding 5.4% last year. The euro area’s economy is expected to grow 1.2% this year and 1.3% next year, after expanding 0.2% last year.
3. Tesla Reports Higher Profit in Third Quarter — The Austin, Texas-based automaker said it recognized its second-highest quarter of regulatory-credit revenue, which comes from other automakers buying them to keep up with emissions requirements. Its energy business also stood out, helping to offset a decline in selling prices for many of its models. Net income was $2.2 billion for the July-to-September period, a 17% increase from a year earlier and lifted in large part by higher sales of regulatory credits to other automakers and the strength of Tesla’s energy business. Global deliveries also rose in the third quarter, helping to boost revenue by 8% to $25.2 billion. The company’s closely watched operating margin was 10.8%, up from 7.6% a year earlier.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“You need to know very well when to move away, or give up the loss, and not allow the anxiety to trick you into trying again.” – Warren Buffett

1. New York Manufacturing Contracts as Orders, Shipments Weaken — The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October general business conditions index slid 23.4 points to a five-month low of minus 11.9, figures issued Tuesday showed. Readings below zero indicate contraction, and the figure was weaker than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. At the same time, the six-month outlook for overall activity increased to a three-year high of 38.7, indicating the state’s manufacturers are more upbeat about the economy’s prospects. A measure of current new orders dropped nearly 20 points to minus 10.2 after climbing a month earlier to the highest since April 2023. The index of shipments decreased almost 21 points to minus 2.7.
The employment index, however, rebounded to 4.1 — the first expansion in a year — while a measure of hours worked also climbed.
2. China Security Group Urges Review of Intel’s Chips as Tech Tension With U.S. Rises — The CyberSecurity Association of China on Wednesday urged for the review by the nation’s regulator, claiming that Intel’s products have shown security vulnerabilities and high failure rates and pose a national-security threat to the country. The call could be a precursor to an official investigation in one of Intel’s most important markets by the powerful Cyberspace Administration of China, which last year conducted a cybersecurity review of another American chip maker, Micron Technology MU 4.72%increase; green up pointing triangle. That review identified “significant security risks” in Micron’s products, and the administration directed major operators of IT infrastructure in the country not to buy them. Micron estimated that the ban would reduce its sales by a low double-digit percentage.
3. Retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than expected — Retail sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.4% on the month, up from the unrevised 0.1% gain in August and better than the 0.3% Dow Jones forecast, according to the advance report. Excluding autos, sales accelerated 0.5%, better than the forecast for just a 0.1% rise. The numbers are adjusted for seasonal factors but not inflation, which rose 0.2% on the month as measured by the consumer price index.
In other economic news Thursday, initial unemployment claim filings totaled a seasonally adjusted 241,000, a decline of 19,000 and lower than the estimate for 260,000, the Labor Department reported. Together, the reports show that consumers, who power about two-thirds of all economic activity in the U.S., are still spending and the labor market is holding up after signs of weakening through the summer.
4. Chinese Growth Comes in Cooler as Investors Pin Hopes on Stimulus — The growth figure China released Friday will do little to buoy sentiments. China’s economy expanded 4.6% in the July-to-September quarter compared with the year-earlier period. That was a touch slower than the 4.7% year-over-year expansion in the second three months of the year..Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, said on Friday that benchmark interest rates could be cut as soon as Monday. In mainland China, the benchmark CSI 300 index closed up 3.6%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index also closed 3.6% higher. Expectations are high that a committee of China’s legislature, the National People’s Congress, will sign off on a big new fiscal package, possibly running into hundreds of billions of dollars of extra government borrowing, when it convenes later this month.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

“The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. …” — unknown

1. Iran Launches Ballistic Missiles at Israel as US Vows to Defend — The Israeli military on Tuesday said Iran fired more than 100 ballistic missiles directly at the country, an escalation in the battle between the Middle Eastern rivals fought mainly so far through proxies. Iranian state TV said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched “tens of ballistic missiles” at Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders and an Iranian general. It targeted “important security and military sites” and threatened “more devastating attacks” if Israel responded.
2. US Services Activity Expands at Fastest Pace Since Early 2023 — The Institute for Supply Management’s index of services advanced 3.4 points to 54.9 last month, the group said Thursday. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, and the latest figure exceeded all projections in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The group’s new orders gauge jumped 6.4 points, the most since the start of 2023. Combined with a four-month high in a measure of business activity, which parallels the ISM’s factory output gauge, the data suggest the economy was on solid footing at the end of the third quarter. Twelve industries reported growth last month, led by real estate, management of companies and support services, and accommodation and food services.
3. US Hiring Tops All Estimates, While Jobless Rate Falls to 4.1% — Nonfarm payrolls increased 254,000 in September, the most in six months, following an upwardly revised 72,000 advance over the prior two months. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and hourly earnings increased 4% from a year earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics’ figures released Friday. Combined with data earlier this week showing that demand for workers is still healthy while layoffs remain low, the payrolls report is likely to alleviate concerns that the labor market is deteriorating. The figures also showed fewer Americans were working part-time for economic reasons and people who recently lost their jobs were able to find work elsewhere. The gain in hiring last month was driven by leisure and hospitality, as well as health care and government. The payrolls diffusion index, which measures the breadth of changes in private employment, rose to the highest since the start of the year. Manufacturers, however, cut jobs for a second month.
4. Food Prices Rose at Fastest Rate in 18 Months in September, UN Says — The FAO’s food price index, which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods, averaged 124.4 points in September, up 3.0% from August and 2.1% higher on year. The index increased at the fastest on-month rate since March 2022. In August, food prices stood at 120.7 points. Sugar prices rose 10.4% in September, driven by falling Brazilian crop prospects on prolonged dry weather and fires in August, and worries that India’s decision to lift ethanol production restrictions on sugarcane could hit export availabilities. Cereal prices rose 3% on higher wheat and corn export prices. International wheat price increases largely reflect concerns of excessively wet conditions in Canada and the European Union, albeit partially offset by competitively priced supplies from the Black Sea region.
5. Port strike ends as workers agree to tentative deal on wages and contract extension — A major union for U.S. dockworkers and the United States Maritime Alliance agreed on Thursday to a tentative deal on wages and have extended their existing contract through Jan. 15 to provide time to negotiate a new contract. ILA wages will increase 61.5% over six years under the tentative agreement, sources told CNBC. For every day of a strike, it can take up to a week to unwind the congestion and delays that build up within the supply chain. According to Everstream Analytics, this three-day all-out strike will likely take minimum three weeks to return to normal operations at U.S. ports.
The number of container ships waiting outside of U.S. Gulf and East Coast ports had decreased from Thursday night to Friday morning, down to 54, according to Everstream, as ships moved into the ports of Savannah and Charleston ahead of terminal reopenings. But its data showed that at the Port of New York-Newark, there had been an increase in ships at anchor. In all, 386,000 twenty-foot equivalent container units were waiting to be moved into ports.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com:

‘Buy on the cannons, sell on the trumpets’ — Nicholas Vardy

1. China Tries to Jolt Ailing Economy — The People’s Bank of China cut its benchmark interest rate and lower the amount of cash that banks need to hold in reserve—a bid to free up more resources for lending. It also said it would cut the interest rate payable on existing mortgages and lower down payments for second homes. At a press conference in Beijing, PBOC Gov. Pan Gongsheng said further easing is in the pipeline, with another reduction in bank reserve requirements expected before year-end.
The central bank also announced it would offer 500 billion yuan in loans, equivalent to roughly $70 billion, to funds, brokers and insurers to buy Chinese stocks as part of an effort to lift the country’s ailing stock market. It said it would put up another 300 billion yuan to finance share buybacks by listed companies.
2. Key Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected — The personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge the Fed focuses on to measure the cost of goods and services in the U.S. economy, rose 0.1% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in July and the lowest since February 2021.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting all-items PCE to rise 0.1% on the month and 2.3% from a year ago. Excluding food and energy, core PCE rose 0.1% in August and was up 2.7% from a year ago, the 12-month number 0.1 percentage point higher than July. Fed officials tend to focus more on core as a better measure of long-run trends. The respective forecasts were for 0.2% and 2.7% on core.
3. Netanyahu Pledges to Continue Fight Against Hezbollah in U.N. Address — Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue his country’s military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, amid U.S.-led efforts to seek a diplomatic solution before all-out war breaks out. Netanyahu’s comments came after Israel shot down a missile that was fired from Yemen by the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels. It was the third time in the past two weeks that Israel’s central area—where a majority of its population resides—has been targeted and signaled the risk of a widening conflict as the fighting in Gaza and Lebanon continues. The Biden administration is pressing for Israel and Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist group, to pause their escalating attacks, hoping to avert a ground war that could escalate into a regional conflagration. The U.S. and France, backed by allies, in a joint statement called for a 21-day pause in the fighting on the Israel-Lebanon border.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: