When in doubt, get out and get a good night’s sleep. I’ve done that lots … When you get out, then you can think clearly again. Michael Marcus

1. US Job Openings Decline to Lowest Level Since January 2021 — US job openings fell in July to the lowest since the start of 2021 and layoffs rose, consistent with other signs of slowing demand for workers. Available positions decreased to 7.67 million from a downwardly revised 7.91 million reading in the prior month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS, showed Wednesday. The figure was lower than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. After July’s disappointing jobs figures and a large downward revision to payrolls in the past year, Fed officials and market participants are paying close attention to the August employment data due Friday — especially if another weak report could prompt an outsize rate cut.
2. Fed’s Beige Book Shows Stagnant, Declining US Economic Activity — Economic activity was flat or declining across most regions in the US in recent weeks, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional contacts. Employment levels were generally flat to up slightly, according to the report released Wednesday. While reports of layoffs were rare, some firms noted cutting shifts and hours, leaving advertised positions unfilled or reducing headcount through attrition. The number of districts reporting flat or declining activity rose to nine in recent weeks, up from five in the prior period. Economic activity grew in three districts. Contacts, however, generally expected economic activity to remain stable or improve somewhat in coming months.
3. August payrolls grew by a less-than-expected 142,000, but unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% — Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 142,000 during the month, up from 89,000 in July and below the 161,000 consensus forecast from Dow Jones, according to a report Friday from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. The labor force expanded by 120,000 for the month, helping push the jobless level down by 0.1 percentage point, though the labor force participation rate held at 62.7%. An alternative measure that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate and is often more volatile than the survey of establishments, showed employment growth of 168,000. The balance, though, tilted toward part-time employment, which increased by 527,000, while full-time fell by 438,000.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: