“Great traders aren’t born or made overnight. It takes patience, discipline and consistency to master the art of trading” — unknown

1. US Retail Sales Excluding Autos Rise by Most in Three Months — Retail purchases less motor vehicles rose 0.4% last month after an upwardly-revised 0.1% advance in May. Total retail sales were unchanged, restrained by a 2% slide in receipts at auto dealers. The figures aren’t adjusted for inflation. Of the 13 categories tracked by the Commerce Department, only three registered declines. Those included sales of gasoline, reflecting lower prices in the month. Sales at sporting goods stores also edged lower. Excluding receipts at filling stations and auto dealers, retail sales jumped 0.8% — the most since the start of 2023. Non-store retailers led the gains, recording their strongest advance in three months. Sales at health and personal care stores rose by the most since October, while sales at building material and garden equipment stores increased by the most since February.
2. Fed’s Beige Book Shows Slight Economic Growth, Cooling Inflation — The US economy grew at a slight pace heading into the third quarter, with a number of regions noting flat or declining activity, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.
Employment also increased only slightly, according to the report Wednesday. Labor turnover declined, and contacts in several districts expect to be more selective about who they hire and not backfill all open positions. Of the districts, five noted flat or declining economic activity — three more than the prior period. Looking ahead, businesses expected the slowing to continue.
3. ECB Holds Rates Steady With More Data Needed for Next Cut — The deposit rate was kept at 3.75% on Thursday — as all 55 economists in a Bloomberg survey predicted. The ECB reiterated that borrowing costs will remain “sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary” to ensure inflation returns to 2%. The ECB is weighing whether euro-zone inflation is cooling sufficiently to allow further monetary loosening. Last month saw a small dip to 2.5% from 2.6%, and while underlying pressures held firm and the advance in services costs again topped 4%, the ECB on Thursday cited “one-off factors” in explaining the move.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: