“Happy July 4th On This Shorten Holiday Week — Do More of What Works and Do Less of What Doesn’t”
 
1. Private payrolls grew by just 150,000 in June, less than expected — Private payroll growth edged lower in June, according to a report Wednesday from ADP that indicates a potential slowdown in the U.S. labor market. Companies added 150,000 jobs for the month, below the upwardly revised 157,000 in May and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 160,000. The total was the lowest monthly gain since January.
Without the surge in leisure and hospitality hiring, the total would have been considerably lower. The sector added 63,000 jobs, easily the biggest gain among the categories that payrolls processing firm ADP measures.
2. U.S. economy added 206,000 jobs in June, unemployment rate rises to 4.1% — Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 for the month, better than the 200,000 Dow Jones forecast though less than the downwardly revised gain of 218,000 in May, which was cut sharply from the initial estimate of 272,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021 and providing a conflicting sign for Federal Reserve officials weighing their next move on monetary policy. The forecast had been for the jobless rate to hold steady at 4%. A broader unemployment rate which counts discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons held steady at 7.4%. Household employment, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, rose by 116,000. The household survey also showed a decrease of 28,000, in full-time workers and an increase of 50,000 in part-time workers.

The week ahead — Economic data from Econoday.com: